Riksbank believes the krona will strengthen

The Riksbank’s forecast indicates the krona will strengthen. The current weakening could be temporary and the market ought not to read too much into recent fluctuations, said first deputy governor of the Riksbank Kerstin af Johnick to journalists in Copenhagen on Tuesday.

She also said that Swedish house prices may cool down somewhat but the Riksbank does not believe there will be a major drop in house prices.

Brexit will affect exports

According to a fresh report from Swedbank, if Britain decides to leave the EU it will likely lead to short term volatility on the world’s financial markets, which would strengthen the dollar and euro against the krona.

In the longer term Swedbank writes, “A Brexit will probably weaken the EU politically and economically. In turn this will affect Sweden negatively.” In particular the service sector, of which the UK is the third largest export market, will be sensitive. In 2014-2015 alone Swedish service exports increased by 44% to the country. Negotiating a new trade deal with the EU is also likely to take a long time, in the case of an exit.

Swedbank also considers there to be a risk that Sweden’s political influence in Brussels would fall. Sweden often votes with the UK and the bank deems that more power will be transferred to the eurozone in the case of a Brexit.